Operational statistic risk assessment for power systems under extreme weather conditions

摘要

Since the power systems become complicated, the probability and perniciousness of multi-concurrent outages keep rising, especially under some extreme weather conditions like typhoon. Thus, operational risk assessment methods are very useful for system operation to evaluate the reliability of power grids under extreme weather. To calculate the forced outage rate (FOR) for components, common reliability evaluation methods use physical models, which analyze the physical relationship between probabilities of outages and one main weather factor. However, because extreme weather contains several factors and the interaction of these factors is hard to be modeled, physical models are not appropriate for risk assessment with extreme weather. To solve this problem, a statistic method is proposed to evaluate the risk of power systems under extreme weather, and a typhoon case is tested with proposed method in a real large-scale power grid of China.