首页> 外文会议>International conference of Chinese transportation professionals;ICCTP 2011 >Using Generalized Estimating Equation Model to Analyze Crash Frequency on Freeways in China
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Using Generalized Estimating Equation Model to Analyze Crash Frequency on Freeways in China

机译:用广义估计方程模型分析中国高速公路的撞车频率

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Over-dispersion and temporal correlation are two major problems in longitudinal data when analyzing crash frequency on freeways. Neglecting such problems may result in underestimation of standard errors and misleading inference for regression parameters. Therefore, appropriate methods need to be proposed to get the unbiased predictions. The primary objective of this study is to illustrate the application of Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) to the analysis of crash frequency data with over-dispersion and temporal correlation. The study will also investigate the relationships between crash frequency and contributing factors. To achieve these research objectives, crash data was collected from 2006 to 2008 on Guangshen freeway in China. A GEE Negative Binomial model was proposed and the effectiveness of the model was also examined. It was found that three variables, including the logarithm of annual traffic volume, days of severe weather, and days of bad visibility significantly affect the crash frequency on freeways.
机译:在分析高速公路上的撞车频率时,过度分散和时间相关性是纵向数据中的两个主要问题。忽略这些问题可能会导致低估标准误差,并导致对回归参数的误导。因此,需要提出适当的方法来获得无偏的预测。这项研究的主要目的是说明广义估计方程(GEE)在具有过度分散和时间相关性的碰撞频率数据分析中的应用。该研究还将调查碰撞频率与影响因素之间的关系。为了实现这些研究目标,2006年至2008年在中国广深高速公路上收集了碰撞数据。提出了GEE负二项式模型,并检验了模型的有效性。研究发现,三个变量,包括年交通量的对数,恶劣天气的天数和能见度差的天数,对高速公路的撞车频率有明显影响。

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