Impact explanation variable identification device, impact explanation variable identification method and impact explanation variable identification program

摘要

To enable determining which one of several explanation variables to be used for performing a prediction exerts an influence in the case where a target variable becomes abnormal.SOLUTION: An influence explanation variable identification device comprises: a correct answer probability acquisition means 32 for determining a basic prediction model which determines a target variable from among explanation variables, and a correct answer probability of the target variable determined by the basic prediction model; all ideal explanation variable calculation means 33 for calculating all ideal explanation variables; importance degree acquisition means 34 for determining an importance degree of an explanation variable for each explanation variable; abnormality detection time correct answer probability acquisition means 35 for acquiring an abnormality detection time correct answer probability; a corrected correct answer probability acquisition means 36; differential correct answer probability acquisition means 37 for determining a differential correct answer probability which is a difference between a corrected correct answer probability and the abnormality detection time correct answer probability, for each explanation variable; division means 38 for dividing the differential correct answer probability by the importance degree for each explanation variable; and influence degree acquisition means 39 for acquiring an influence degree for determining which explanation variable exerts an influence on an abnormality on the basis of a result of the division means.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 9