QUANTIFYING THE PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY OF NEURAL NETWORKS VIA RESIDUAL ESTIMATION WITH I/O KERNEL

摘要

A residual estimation with an I/O kernel ("RIO") framework provides estimates of predictive uncertainty of neural networks, and reduces their point-prediction errors. The process captures neural network ("NN") behavior by estimating their residuals with an I/O kernel using a modified Gaussian process ("GP"). RIO is applicable to real-world problems, and, by using a sparse GP approximation, scales well to large datasets. RIO can be applied directly to any pretrained NNs without modifications to model architecture or training pipeline.