A system and method are provided for Bayesian updating of distributions of factors that affect tire wear. Information is accumulated in data storage regarding probability distributions corresponding to each of a respective plurality of tire wear factors. Vehicle data comprising movement data and location data collected in association with a vehicle is transmitted from the vehicle to a centralized (e.g., cloud) computing device or network. At least one observation corresponding to one or more of the plurality of factors is generated based on the transmitted vehicle data. A Bayesian estimation is then generated of a tire wear status at a given time for at least one tire associated with the vehicle, based at least on the at least one generated observation and the stored information regarding probability distributions. The predictions accordingly carry a measure of uncertainty, and Bayesian inference can be used to update distributions based on the observations.
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