EVENT PREDICTION DEVICE, EVENT PREDICTION METHOD, AND EVENT PREDICTION PROGRAM

摘要

An object is to predict an event with high accuracy by efficiently incorporating external information into a point process model of events. In an event prediction device 10 that predicts an event, an operation unit 3 extracts event history information from an event history storage device 1 and extracts external information from an external information storage device 2, the event history information including a point in time and a place at which an event has occurred, the external information including an external factor that affects the occurrence of an event. A parameter estimation unit 5 estimates an optimum parameter for prediction of an event by supplying the extracted history information and the extracted external information to learning of a relationship between the point process model of events and external factors.