PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION OUTPUT ESTIMATION METHOD AND DEMAND FORECASTING METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a photovoltaic (PV) power generation output estimation method that easily estimates PV power output and a demand prediction method that predicts an actual load at a future time based on an estimated PV power output.;SOLUTION: In a power system where a load and a photovoltaic power generation facility are interconnected, a relationship between effective power Pm and reactive power Qm of a line tidal current being values which can be obtained, and solar radiation Irm received by the photovoltaic power generation facility is expressed in the following equation (1), parameters are derived by applying a Kalman filter to it, and an estimate of the effective power of the photovoltaic power generation output is obtained. For effective power PL of the load obtained from the estimated effective power of the photovoltaic power generation output, a relationship between a value at time t and a value at a past time is expressed by the following equation (8), parameters are derived by applying the Kalman filter to it, and a predicted value of the effective power of the load at the previous time is obtained.;SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1;COPYRIGHT: (C)2021,JPO&INPIT