Computer-based diagnostic expert system organized according to Bayesian theory

摘要

An expert system is organized according to Bayes' theorem. The system includes a diagnostic module that generates a diagnosis in the form of probability distributions. The diagnostic module also is responsive to evidence in the form of discretized time trajectories in the value space of the observable variables. The diagnostic module is also responsive to data from a knowledge base that represents the trajectories of the possible states of the system and the associated values of the likelihood that the various trajectories of observed evidence would be present if the system were in that state.