Multiple mode probability density estimation with application to sequential markovian decision processes

摘要

The invention recognizes that a probability density function for fitting a model to a complex set of data often has multiple modes, each mode representing a reasonably probable state of the model when compared with the data. Particularly, an image may require a complex sequence of analyses in order for a pattern embedded in the image to be ascertained. Computation of the probability density function of the model state involves two main stages: (1) state prediction, in which the prior probability distribution is generated from information known prior to the availability of the data, and (2) state update, in which the posterior probability distribution is formed by updating the prior distribution with information obtained from observing the data. In particular this information obtained purely from data observations can also be expressed as a probability density function, known as the likelihood function. The likelihood function is a multimodal (multiple peaks) function when a single data frame leads to multiple distinct measurements from which the correct measurement associated with the model cannot be distinguished. The invention analyzes a multimodal likelihood function by numerically searching the likelihood function for peaks. The numerical search proceeds by randomly sampling from the prior distribution to select a number of seed points in state-space, and then numerically finding the maxima of the likelihood function starting from each seed point. Furthermore, kernel functions are fitted to these peaks to represent the likelihood function as an analytic function. The resulting posterior distribution is also multimodal and represented using a set of kernel functions. It is computed by combining the prior distribution and the likelihood function using Bayes Rule. The peaks in the posterior distribution are also referred to as ‘hypotheses’, as they are hypotheses for the states of the model which best explain both the data and the prior knowledge.