Method and system for internet-based, competitive event prediction

摘要

A method and system for providing an Internet-based competitive speculation forum in which participants can submit predictions of future events, obtain rewards for correct predictions and suffer penalties for incorrect predictions. Each competitive speculation forum is defined by a number of future events, such as sporting contests, elections and election debates, and stock price fluctuations. Participants may submit straight predictions, each based on a single future event, combination predictions, each based on a set of future events, and aggregation predictions, each based on a single future event and automatically resubmitted at fixed intervals. When an event occurs, points are awarded or subtracted from a participant's point holdings based on the length of time between the prediction and the occurrence of the event or events on which the prediction is based, the degree to which the occurrence of the event exceeds or falls short of an expected outcome, the reciprocal probability of the occurrence of the event, and a participant's confidence, measured in points, in the prediction.