INVENTORY ESTIMATION METHOD AND INVENTORY ESTIMATION DEVICE

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate how many products produced in advance are left as a stock in the case where the products are produced in advance. SOLUTION: The inventory estimation device has a lead time calculation part 2 for calculating a lead time required from a factory shipping date to a car-delivery date to a consumer every at vehicles based on an award result data of the product; a delivered car quantity calculation part 4 for calculating the number of delivered cars at each lead time; an accumulation delivered car ratio calculation part 6 for calculating a delivered car ratio at which the vehicles delivered at each lead time occupied against the whole number of vehicle delivered based on the delivery quantity every at the lead time and calculating a ratio occupied by the vehicles delivered until the time when each lead time is passed as an accumulation delivered car ratio; a stock quantity probability calculation processing part 8 for calculating a stock quantity probability by reducing the accumulation delivered car ratio from 1 at each lead time and determining a stock quantity probability function representing the stock quantity probability by a formula; and an estimation stock quantity calculation processing part 10 for calculating a production plan quantity inputted and designated and an estimation stock quantity at the time after the estimation date using the stock quantity probability function. The stock quantity of each product item is estimated based on a result at the lead time.