Method for predicting future orders of parts for products sold to users and method for predicting future orders of parts of low rate of requests for products sold to users.

摘要

Invention patent "method for predicting future orders of parts for products sold to users and method for predicting future orders of parts of low rate of requests for products soldThe users ".Pieces of low rate applications, whose rates fell below a predetermined level are extracted.Determining a parameter indicating the characteristic of applications and conducts a classification into multiple categories.Then, using the parameter, calculate the probability distribution of the order of occurrence for each category.Is carried out a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).On the basis of the probability distributions of the occurrence rate for the determination of the probability distributions of the occurrence rate during a predetermined period and makes a forecast Fu.The fracture of order quantity of parts, low rate of requests based on the probability distributions of the occurrence rate calculated for the period predetermined (n).With this, in management and inventory management of spare parts, it becomes possible to predict future requests, parts, accurate, pieces of low rate applications, which, for example,They fell one unit per month or less.