Construction of experiment designs and results analysis

摘要

Quantifying uncertainties related to continuous (quantitative) and discrete (qualitative) parameters descriptive of a medium such as an underground zone and/or managing the selection of a scenario from a series of possible scenarios relative to this medium, by construction of experiment designs and results analysis suited to the designs. The experiment design comprises: a factorial part, constructed by folding a regular fraction for the quantitative factors and assignment of at least one modality of a qualitative factor to each one of the blocks formed by folding; a central part; and an axial part of the qualitative factors, determined according to a D-optimality criterion (preferably on a limited number of scenarios). The results are analysed by combining a sensitivity analysis and a risk analysis involving marginal models (adjusted to each scenario) and a global model (adjusted to all of the scenarios). In a reservoir exploration context, different production scenarios (e.g. reservoir crossed by open or closed faults) can be compared to better understand the role of noncontrollable discrete parameters (fault status etc.) and/or to select the scenario which optimizes production in the case of controllable discrete parameters (well addition, completion levels, etc.). Other applications include engineering, medicine or agronomy.