EQUIPMENT INVESTMENT RISK ESTIMATION METHOD AND SYSTEM, AND PROGRAM THEREFOR

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To reasonably and efficiently set various external situations, and to reasonably and efficiently execute decision making of equipment investment while comprehensively considering an estimation result in the various external situations.;SOLUTION: Based on user's instructions, each combination of three kinds of elements, i.e., a risk estimation criterion 122, a strategic option 113 and a macro external scenario 111, is set as an 'estimation case(estimation unit)' (S201). A decision tree 121 is produced by use of three kinds of elements, i.e., stochastic uncertain environment 112, and the strategic option 113 and the macro external scenario 111 imparted in the estimation case (S202). The decision tree 121 is estimated on the basis of the risk estimation criterion 122 imparted in the estimation case, and an estimation result 123 is stored (S203). A set of the estimation results 123 obtained by executing the decision tree production and the decision tree estimation in each the estimation case is analyzed, and an analysis result is displayed (S205).;COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO&NCIPI