Method and system for forecasting agricultural commodity prices in presence of price supports

摘要

A method and system provide a process and means for using a general-purpose computer to transform data representing past agricultural commodity market prices, stock amounts and support prices, into forecasts of future market prices and price volatilities to use to aid in allocating industrial and technological resources in the management and procurement of the commodities and stocks thereof. Governmental price supports and stock effects are explicitly incorporated while price volatility varies over time, thereby reflecting short-term changes in market conditions. Non-linear model specifications and forecasting functions jointly incorporate price support and time-series analysis into a dynamic censored-regression model of a commodity market. A version further enables the incorporation of price effects among linked commodity markets.