Method for determining a marginal probability for an observed phenomenon in a probabilistic network which describes probabilities for relationships between the phenomenon and physical parameters by using a bound propagation method with an upper bound and a lower bound, wherein the calculation of the upper bound and the lower bound is performed by an iterative linear programming formalism, with the calculation being consecutively repeated while varying a choice for the determinable marginal subset from the plurality of marginal subsets until a convergence criterion is fulfilled.
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