首页>
外国专利>
Updating uncertainties in a subsurface model
Updating uncertainties in a subsurface model
展开▼
机译:更新地下模型中的不确定性
展开▼
页面导航
摘要
著录项
相似文献
摘要
A method of predicting values of formation parameters (e.g., compressional velocity, density, pore pressure, and fracture pressure) as a function of depth includes generating an initial prediction of a profile of the formation parameters and uncertainties associated therewith using information available regarding the formation, obtaining information related to the formation parameters during drilling, and updating the uncertainties as a function of the first prediction and the information obtained in a recursive fashion. Known equations are used for finding initial values, and uncertainties associated therewith are quantified by using probability density functions (PDFs). A Bayesian approach is utilized where "prior PDFs" describe uncertainty prior to obtaining additional information, and "posterior PDFs" account for the additional information acquired. As additional information is acquired while drilling, the posterior PDFs are redefined. Uncertainty in the formation parameters is quantified by sampling posterior PDFs given all the data with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm which generates numerous formation parameter profiles consistent with the data and the computed Bayesian uncertainties. Histograms of the numerous formation parameter profiles may be plotted to visualize the uncertainty in the formation parameters.
展开▼