In the manner which splits earthquake motion forecasting manner and the fault of the record media null

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To enable the forecast in consideration of fluctuation of a long period component by expressing the slip speed of a small area so as to be fluctuated with the fluctuation of time and while so as to be exponentially reduced, and giving fluctuation to a frequency component of the earthquake movement. ;SOLUTION: Forecast of a large earthquake is enabled by dividing a fault of a large earthquake into the same areas with a fault of a small earthquake, and obtaining a mathematical model comprising the observed earthquake movement of a small earthquake, correction of distance attenuation of a small area, correction of the radiation characteristic, and slip correcting function. In a model, of which slip speed is exponentially reduced with passing of time, variation is given to the earthquake movement of the small area, which is formed by dividing a vibration area of a large earthquake into small area, at the time of initial slip speed of the small area. With this variation when a slip correcting function of the earthquake movement of each small area is computed by a computer with a mathematical expression, variation is generated in a low frequency component, and simulation of a real earthquake is enabled.;COPYRIGHT: (C)1999,JPO