System and method for automated establishment of experience ratings and/or risk reserves

摘要

System and method for automated experience rating and/or loss reserving for events, a certain event P_i,f of an initial year i including development values P_ikf with development year k. For i, k applicable is i=1, . . . , K and k=1, . . . , K, K being the last known development year, and the first initial year i=1 comprising all development values P_1kf in a specified way. To determine the development values P_{i,K−(i−j)+1,f} neural networks N_i,j are generated iteratively for each initial year i (i−1), whereby j=1, . . . ,(i−1) are the number of iterations for a particular initial year i and whereby the neural network N_i,j+1 depends recursively on the neural network N_i,j. In particular the system and method is suitable for experience rating for insurance contracts and/or excess of loss reinsurance contracts.