METHOD OF FORECASTING FUTURE ORDERS OF PARTS INVENTORY MANAGEMENT

摘要

Low-order- rate parts whose order rates to have fallen below a predetermined level are extracted, a parameter indicating a characteristic of order is determined and classification into multiple categories is conducted. Then, using the parameter, an order occurrence probability distributions is calculated for each category. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out based on the calculated order occurrence probability distributions of number of orders during a predetermined period, and the future number of orders of the low-order rate parts is forecast based on the calculated occurrence rate probability distributions of numbers of orders during the predetermined period. With this, in part inventory management, it becomes possible to accurately forecast future number of orders of the low order pats for which order has, for example fallen to one unit per month or fewer