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Prediction markets for assessing clinical probabilities of success
Prediction markets for assessing clinical probabilities of success
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机译:用于评估临床成功可能性的预测市场
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摘要
Prediction markets are used to determine the probability of an experimental therapeutic, diagnostic, or prophylactic candidate meeting clinical trial and post-trial goals, such as clinical trial endpoints and timelines. The prediction market processes buy and sell orders from market participants, while adjusting the prices of the securities according to the orders. The securities have specific meanings which correspond to goals in clinical trials or other outcomes in clinical candidate development. The price of a security determined by the market corresponds to the probability of the corresponding goal or outcome. The participants are selected for their expert knowledge of specific factors related to candidate development. Using appropriately selected securities and participants, the prediction market may be used to generate probabilities of success useful for long-range planning and valuation, determining production timelines and volumes, management of candidates in a development portfolio, and clinical management of patients by physicians.
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