Method for analysis of opinion polls in a national electoral system

摘要

An algorithm for analyzing presidential preference opinion polls to arrive at a statistical snapshot of a multistate electoral-vote-allocation political race such as the US presidential race. Multiple opinion polls are used to estimate the outcome probability in individual state races. Polls are used to calculate a probability distribution of all possible electoral vote outcomes. The algorithm includes a method for calculating a median electoral vote estimator at any moment during a campaign. The electoral vote estimator can be tracked over time. The estimation of single-state probability is done using a Bayesian method to correct for sampling biases and systematic errors in polls, thereby allowing correction of the overall estimate. The algorithm calculates the relative value of an individual vote, the jerseyvote, in different states. The jerseyvote valuation aids resource allocation by a political campaign or party, an advocacy organization, or an individual activist.