Method of using a the decision for the management of a reservoir petrolier in the presence of the uncertain technical parameters and economic

摘要

Technical parameters are selected from flow simulation. Taking them into account, a first analytical model is formed, to describe production as a function of time. Optimum fit is obtained, based on a finite number of production values from simulation. Starting from the first analytical model, a second analytical model is obtained as a function of the technical parameters determined initially. In addition, selected economic parameters are taken into account. A criterion is evaluated, with due regard to production uncertainties related to uncertain technical parameters. Sensitivity analysis is effected. Starting from the second model, uncertainties concerning deposit profitability are determined as a function of technical and economic parameter uncertainties. A probability density is associated with each of the economic and technical parameters, then re-sampling is employed. The Monte Carlo- or Bootstrap method is used. Using the second model, technical and economic parameters are optimized. Further developments of the method are described in accordance with the foregoing principles. Neural network methodology is invoked. At least one uncertainty parameter associated with the deposit is of a discrete, continuous or stochastic nature. Exploitation modeling covers new drilling sites, the scheme of well development and exploitation, location of well completions and the type of fluid recovery. The criterion aiding decision is the economic profitability of the deposit.