System and method for forecasting uncertain events with adjustments for participants characteristics

摘要

The present invention is a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. Determining their individual characteristics and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, provides a probability assessment of the future outcome of an uncertain event. In one embodiment of the present invention the aggregated prediction is compared to both the objective probability of its occurrence and the performance of the market as a whole. In one embodiment, the present invention includes a forecasting process comprising, running an information market, extracting participant characteristics, performing a query process, and aggregating the participant characteristics and results of the query process. The information market is designed to elicit characteristics of the participants include participant risk inclination and ability to analyze information provided in the information market.