System and method for determining expected unserved energy to quantify generation reliability risks

摘要

A method, system and program product for quantifying a risk of an expected unserved energy in an energy generation system using a digital simulation. An energy load demand forecast is generated based at least in part on a weather year model. A plurality of energy generation resources are committed to meet the energy load demand. An operating status is determined for each committed energy generation resource in the energy generation system. A determination is made as to whether or not the committed resources are sufficient to meet the energy load demand. A dispatch order for a plurality of additional energy resources is selected if the committed resources are not sufficient to meet the energy load demand. Additional resources are committed based on the selected dispatch order until the energy load demand is met. The expected unserved energy is determined and an equivalent amount of energy load demand is shed based at least in part on an expected duration of unserved energy and a customer class grouping. An associated cost for the expected unserved energy is also determined.