A METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR PREDICTING THE ADOPTION OF SERVICES, SUCH AS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

摘要

An innovative service modeling framework is provided that can be used to analyze and assess the business opportunities of existing and emerging telecommunication services. This forecasting model/tool provides an approach to assess current and future markets - thus lowering investment risks, ensuring better decisions and subsequently having a greater impact. The core of the framework relies on a novel forecasting model (based on the theory of diffusion or S-curves) that departs from typical models used by popular research firms. The enhanced diffusion model relies on multi-dimensional input parameters and can take into account the impact of disruptions, regulations, network readiness, user utility and other dynamics. The input parameters are modeled as a series of vectors and are used to represent perturbations to the model. These influence the behavior of the adoption rate process in more realistic way.