A method of long-term prediction average iciness Okhotsk, comprising carrying out routine monitoring of atmospheric circulation and drawing archive the received information data, characterized in that the current monitoring is carried out in the North Pacific the action of two types of atmospheric circulation - cyclones above the ocean (Cn) and Northwestern (SO ), the total monthly count duration (d, day) of each of them at least three-year period and then calculated for prognostic skim equations average monthly business-like (L) of the Okhotsk Sea in January or February, or March, or the month of May (m) with a lead time (s) of the projection 4, 5 or 7 years according to the following equation: Where! - ice cover in the "m" -month lead time "z" years! - the total duration of the Cn type of atmospheric processes in the time interval "D1" in advance "of" years; ! - the total duration of the C3 type of atmospheric processes in the time interval "d2" lead time "s2" years; ! - the total duration of the C3 type of atmospheric processes in the time interval "q3" lead time "P3" years; ! - the total duration of the C3 type of atmospheric processes in the time interval "e4" in advance "P4" years; ! K1, K2, K3, K4 - factors; ! C - intercept, at that! for January (m = 1): when s = 7: P1 = P2 = 7, d1 = 3 years, q2 = 1 year; K1 = (- 1.1); K2 = 0.8 and C = 987; ! and when s = 4: P1 = 7, s2 = 4, d1 = 3, d1 = October (X) a month for the previous forecast of 4 years (z = 4), K1 = (- 0.99), K2 = 5.5, and C = 1021; ! for February (m = II):! when s = 7 and P1 = P2 = 7: d1 = d2 = 3 years, K1 = (- 1.02); K2 = 0.55, and C = 1184 or! e1 = 3, q2 = 1 year, K1 = (- 1.2), K2 = 0.94 and P = 1314; ! and when
展开▼
