FAILURE PREDICTION DEVICE FOR LIGHTNING ARRESTER FOR POWER TRANSMISSION, FAILURE PREDICTION PROGRAM AND FAILURE PREDICTION METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To properly predict a failure rate of a lightning arrester for power transmission.SOLUTION: A failure prediction device for a lightning arrester for power transmission includes: a lightning stroke database 21 for storing lightning stroke information including past lightning stroke positions and lightning stroke current values; and a lightning arrester database 22 for storing lightning arrester information including a structure and an installation position of a steel tower in which each lightning arrester for power transmission is installed, a ground inclination angle, and a failure lightning stroke current value for each lightning arrester for power transmission. A lightning stroke density task 31 calculates a lightning stroke density indicating the number of lightning strokes for each year within a predetermined distance from the lightning arrester for power transmission, and calculates a predicted lightning stroke density from an average value and a standard deviation. A cumulative frequency task 32 calculates a cumulative frequency distribution indicating a cumulative frequency for a lightning stroke current value of a lightning stroke having occurred within the predetermined distance from the lightning arrester for power transmission, and calculates a failure lightning stroke current cumulative frequency for the failure lightning stroke current value of the lightning arrester for power transmission from the cumulative frequency distribution. A failure probability task 33 calculates a shielding failure probability of being impossible to shield the lightning stroke to the lightning arrester for power transmission. A failure rate task 34 calculates a failure rate of the lightning arrester for power transmission on the basis of the predicted lightning stroke density, the failure lightning stroke current cumulative frequency and the shielding failure probability.