System and method for automatically predicting the outcome of expert forecasts

摘要

Systems and methods are provided that predict the accuracy of expert forecasts based on a corpus of prior expert forecasts. Expert forecasts (also referred to as opinions) are analyzed and processed to determine an opinion and related positions expressed by the expert. Each opinion is combined with relevant industry information to create a structured model for the opinion. A plurality of structured models for a given expert are then analyzed along with information related to the actual outcome of prior predictions to create a decision model for the particular expert. A new opinion issued by an expert is then analyzed using the decision model for that expert to predict the accuracy of the new opinion from the expert. Recommended actions in accordance with or against the new expert opinion may then be provided.