METHOD OF ESTIMATING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE PRESENCE AND NON-PRESENCE OF INTRUSIONS IN A SURVEILLANCE AREA

摘要

The invention relates to the conducting of anti-submarine warfare operations, aiming in particular to protect certain areas of the submarine environment from any intrusion. The inventive method consists in implementing two different methods for estimating the probability of presence of an intruder in a given surveillance area. The object of the first estimation method, which assigns a deterministic reactive behaviour to a potential intruder, is to determine the places of the surveillance area where the probability of presence of an intruder is high, even very high. The object of the second estimation method, which assigns an almost random, non-reactive behaviour to a potential intruder, is to determine the places of the surveillance area where the probability of presence of an intruder is very low, even zero. By associating the estimations obtained, it becomes possible to concentrate the action of the antisubmarine warfare means on the places with high probability of presence of an intruder while estimating the risk that possible places of location of an intruder escape any surveillance.