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Integrated demand prediction apparatus, integrated demand prediction method, and integrated demand prediction program

机译:综合需求预测装置,综合需求预测方法和综合需求预测程序

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an integrated demand prediction device capable of highly accurately predicting a demand for a plurality of different prediction periods, and to provide an integrated demand prediction method and an integrated demand prediction program.SOLUTION: The integrated demand prediction device construct a plurality of demand prediction models on the basis of a demand result quantity stored in demand result quantity storage means for storing past demand result quantities; calculates a prediction demand quantity for every constructed demand prediction model; calculates a prediction error for each of the plurality of demand prediction models in a common period, on the basis of the calculated prediction demand quantity and the demand result quantities stored in the demand result quantity storage means; calculates, for every prediction period, a blend ratio for each of the plurality of demand prediction models for making the calculated prediction error with respect to the prediction error within a predetermined prediction error range; and calculates the blend ratio for every calculated demand prediction model and the prediction demand quantity for every calculated demand prediction model so as to calculate the prediction demand quantity in the predetermined prediction period.
机译:解决的问题:提供一种能够在多个不同的预测期间中高度准确地预测需求的集成需求预测设备,并提供集成需求预测方法和集成需求预测程序。解决方案:集成需求预测设备构造基于存储在用于存储过去需求结果量的需求结果量存储装置中的需求结果量的多个需求预测模型;为每个构建的需求预测模型计算预测需求量;基于计算出的预测需求量和存储在需求结果量存储单元中的需求结果量,在共同期间内针对多个需求预测模型的每一个计算预测误差;对于每个预测周期,计算多个需求预测模型中的每个需求预测模型的混合比,以使所计算的预测误差相对于预定预测误差范围内的预测误差;计算每个计算出的需求预测模型的混合比和每个计算出的需求预测模型的预测需求量,以计算出预定预测周期内的预测需求量。

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