Prediction mechanism of renewable energy output fluctuation based on real-time prediction method of weather fluctuation

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To carry out the required space-time local prediction which is extremely difficult in current weather prediction by existing whether prediction for predicting output of recyclable energy and the whether condition and preparing beforehand to prevent the problem of a power system being unstabilized due to violent output variation from influence of the whether condition in recyclable energy.SOLUTION: A method is provided for predicting the space-time local weather condition in the future from the past time-sequence by a light-weight and multi time simultaneous prediction method at real time along with estimated error. Thus, preventing unstabilization of a power system beforehand is facilitated since the power generation output of the recyclable energy is capable of being predicted in real time along with the estimated error. Furthermore, various space-time local weather conditions of not only the wind state or solar radiation but temperature and amount of rainfall is capable of being predicted in real time along with the estimated error since this invention is not dependent on a system for observation object and application of a weather predication system predicting the influence of the use of recyclable energy to global environment is capable.