System And Method For Bounding Accuracy On Correlated Overhead Sky Clearness For Use In Photovoltaic Fleet Output Estimation

摘要

Statistically representing point-to-point photovoltaic power estimation and area-to-point conversion of satellite pixel irradiance data are described. Accuracy on correlated overhead sky clearness is bounded by evaluating a mean and standard deviation between recorded irradiance measures and the forecast irradiance measures. Sky clearness over the two locations is related with a correlation coefficient by solving an empirically-derived exponential function of the temporal distance. Each forecast clearness index is weighted by the correlation coefficient to form an output set of forecast clearness indexes and the mean and standard deviation are proportioned. Additionally, accuracy on correlated satellite imagery is bounded by converting collective irradiance into point clearness indexes. A mean and standard deviation for the point clearness indexes is evaluated. The mean is set as an area clearness index for the bounded area. For each point, a variance of the point clearness index is determined and the mean and standard deviation are proportioned.