Predictive model building apparatus, method , and program , as well as the amount of power generation prediction apparatus , and methods

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To establish a prediction model which corresponds to periodic climates and a property change of a photovoltaic power generation panel, capable of performing future power generation amount prediction accurately.SOLUTION: Past power generation amount achievement y, climate data xand measurement date and time tthereof are used to establish a set of input/output (z, y) for storing in a storage section 15 (S23). New climate data xand measurement day and time tthereof are used to establish input data serving as query z(S26). For all input data zand query z, similarity J(z, z) is calculated with a lapsed time based on a measurement day and time vector without the element of similarity between climate data and year (S29), an N data sets (z, y) corresponding to the ascending order of the similarity J (z, z) is selected (S30) and a prediction model f is established using the N data sets (z, y) (S31).