PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To reduce a calculation load of a probability about arrangement of watchmen.SOLUTION: A guard plan support method for supporting decision of arrangement of watchmen in a guard zone, is configured so that a computer executes: processing for calculating an expectation value (risk degree) of a loss when an intruder reaches a target, about each of plural targets which are aimed by the intruder, on a path graph indicating a movement path in the guard zone; processing for specifying a guard line (minimum cut) in which a number of crossing a side of the path graph becomes minimum, when separating the target having the largest expectation value of the loss, from one or plural positions which may become an intrusion position of the intruder on the path graph; and processing for calculating a guard probability in which a probability at which the intruder intrudes the target side of a guard line is minimum, based on the path graph, the guard line, and the number of watchmen.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 5A
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