Power generation amount predicting control device, power generation amount prediction method, and power generation amount prediction program

摘要

A power generation amount predicting control apparatus capable of predicting a power generation amount of a solar power plant with high accuracy is provided. A storage unit for storing a power generation amount attenuation rate with respect to a cloud amount and a past accumulated power generation amount X based on a power generation amount attenuation rate corresponding to the cloud amount at the time of power generation. The power generation amount is corrected to the power generation amount X0 when the cloud amount is 0%, and is stored in the storage unit 2 as a new corrected power generation amount X0 at each power generation time, and the stored corrected power generation amount X0 is the power generation time. The first power generation amount prediction for classifying into units and calculating the average and standard deviation at each power generation time and predicting the power generation amount X0_predict when the cloud amount is 0% on the prediction target day based on the obtained average and standard deviation And a second power generation amount prediction unit 15 that predicts the power generation amount Xpredict of the prediction target day based on the power generation amount X0_predict and the attenuation rate of the power generation amount corresponding to the cloud amount of the prediction target day. [Selection] Figure 2