A system and method for data-driven HVAC optimization for outputting HVAC setpoints to a thermostat and determining a predicted HVAC usage of an HVAC unit based on the HVAC setpoints and an outdoor temperature. The system may further determine and output a predicted cost of the HVAC unit heating or cooling a structure based on the HVAC setpoints. The system may further select optimized HVAC setpoints such that the predicted cost is less than or equal to a user defined cost constraint and minimize deviation from user-preferred HVAC setpoints.
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