PROBABILISTIC DETEMINATION OF HEALTH PROGNOSTICS FOR SELECTION AND MANAGEMENT OF TOOLS IN A DOWNHOLE ENVIRONMENT

摘要

A system and method to determine health prognostics for selection and management of a tool for deployment in a downhole environment are described. The system includes a database to store life cycle information of the tool, the life cycle information including environmental and operational parameters associated with use of the tool. The system also includes a memory device to store statistical equations to determine the health prognostics of the tool, and a processor to calibrate the statistical equations and build a time-to-failure model of the tool based on a first portion of the life cycle information in the database.