Systems and methods are provided for probabilistically estimating an individual's sleep stage based on spectral analyses of pulse rate and motion data. The embodiments include receiving signals from sensors worn by the individual, including a photoplethysmographic (PPG) signal and an accelerometer signal. The embodiments may divide the PPG signal into segments and determining a beat interval associated with each segment. The embodiments may resample the set of beat intervals to generate an interval signal. The embodiments may generate signal features based on the interval signal and the accelerometer signal, including a spectrogram of the interval signal. The embodiments may determine a sleep stage for the individual by comparing the signal features to a sleep stage classifier included in a learning library, wherein the sleep stage classifier comprises one or more functions defining a likelihood that the individual is in the sleep stage based on the signal features.
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