A method for predicting dose distribution INDIVIDUAL defeat at nuclear and radiation accidents

摘要

1. A method for predicting dose distributions of individual lesions in nuclear and radiological accidents comprising calculating density veroyatnostiprognoziruemogo lognormal distribution of the relative number of individual lesions (N) on individual characteristics dose of radiation damage (D) according to the formula: wherein m and σ - distribution parameters calculated using ratios: and wherein from specified values, Dand, gdes - the relative standard deviation of the ratio of the human factor; - average yn vidual dose; D- average individual dose of irradiation accumulated during emergency during adaptation to stay in an emergency situation, and obtaining as a prediction density veroyatnostiraspredeleniya individual doses, of the maximum value - the most probable dose D and the density ratio likelihood of the most likely and moderate dozy2. according to claim prediction method. 1, characterized in that produce calculations of the parameters m and σ while varying over a wide range otnosheniyasredney individual dozyk dose D, accumulated during emergency irradiation for the adaptation of the average individual dose, and as the values ​​of the parameters m and σ take their average znacheniyais scatter values ​​by varying them as a measure of error, the maximum value of the distribution - most probable dose Dvychislyayut by the formula: and the ratio of the densities of the probability of obtaining the most probable and medium dose - by the formula: 3. A method according to claim prediction. 1, characterized in that the parameters m and σ calculated by the standard deviation value of the relative influence coefficient