METHOD OF PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-STAGE PROCESS EFFECTIVENESS

摘要

FIELD: physics.;SUBSTANCE: method records the necessary initial data in the memory, analyzes the correspondence of the solutions and situations, determines the likelihood of timely and correct decision-making, classifies the variants of the initial state, the results of the implementation of the intermediate stages and the results of the final stage of the multi-stage process, sets the apriori probability of situations corresponding to the classes of the initial state of the multi-stage process, determines the probability of occurrence of situations, which correspond to the classes of intermediate states of the multi-stage process and to the classes of the final state of the multi-stage process, as well as for the multi-stage process, calculates the apriori probability of achieving the targets, forms a predictive characteristics of the classes of the initial state, receives information about the values of the predictive characteristics of the classes of state, and calculates a posteriori probability of the initial state and the predictive value of the efficiency indicator.;EFFECT: providing an automated calculation of the predicted value of the efficiency indicator of multi-stage processes.;1 dwg