Failure rate estimating apparatus, failure rate estimating method, and program

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To appropriately estimate a failure rate of a device due to an earthquake even with less sample data.SOLUTION: A failure rate estimation device for estimating a failure rate of a device due to an earthquake comprises: input means in which, under the assumption that the number of fault devices among the total number of devices which got caught in an earthquake follows a predetermined known distribution function regarding the total number of devices and a failure rate, a rate for obtaining the number of observed fault devices is represented as a function of the failure rate, a property which should be satisfied by the failure rate is represented as a conditional expression of the failure rate, and the function and the conditional expression are input; computation means for, under the assumption of representation by the conditional expression, calculating a value of the failure rate maximizing the rate represented by the function; and output means for outputting the value of the failure rate as an estimate.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1