RAINFALL PREDICTION DEVICE AND RAINFALL PREDICTION METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a rainfall prediction device and rainfall prediction method that can predict an occurrence probability of strong rains, in addition to prediction of an amount of rainfall relative to abruptly growing cumulonimbus.SOLUTION: A rainfall prediction device 10 comprises: an observation data acquisition unit 11 that acquires observation data on rainfalls; a numerical value prediction unit 12 that divides an observation area into a grid shape, uses the observation data to calculate a timewise change in rainfall state, and predicts a future rainfall state for each grid; a nowcast prediction unit 13 that uses the observation data to obtain a movement of a past rainfall area and a distribution of a current rainfall, and predicts a distribution of the rainfall occurring in a short time later for each grid; an accuracy rate calculation unit 14 that determines the number of position deviation grids relative to numerical value prediction data and nowcast prediction data, and calculates an accuracy rate for each of the number of position deviation grids; and a synthesis unit 16 that estimates an optimal synthesis coefficient in real time in consideration for the accuracy rate obtained by the accuracy rate calculation unit 14, and synthesizes up-to-date numerical value prediction data and the nowcast prediction data, using the optimal synthesis coefficient.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1