SYSTEM AND METHOD OF DETERMINING FORECAST ERROR FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY FLUCTUATIONS

摘要

A system for determining (a) forecast error and/or (b) scaling error for wind power generation is provided, the system utilizing generated and forecast time series for power generation derived from wind and analyzing temporal correlations in the wind fluctuations to quantify: (a) the forecast error defined by deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and generated time series, and (b) a scaling error defined by a degree that temporal correlations fail to be predicted for an accurate predictor of wind fluctuations. Wind fluctuations may exhibit multi-fractal behavior at the turbine level and/or may be rectified to a fractal structure at the grid level. A memory kernel may be used to reduce the forecast and scaling errors.