A method for estimating growth stage threshold values for a specific hybrid seed at a specific geo-location using historical growth stage data and observed growth stage data comprises using a server computer system, storing a historical crop growth model of one or more hybrid seeds measured from one or more fields over a particular period of time. The historical crop growth model includes growth stage threshold estimates for one or more hybrid seeds. The server computer system receives, via a network, one or more digital measurement values specifying one or more observed growth stage values for a particular hybrid seed at a particular field over a particular period of time. The server computer system transforms the growth stage thresholds into growth stage duration values for the historical crop data and the observed crop data. The server computer system then generates a posterior distribution of growth stage duration values for the particular hybrid seed using a multivariate distribution of growth stage duration value data, which is comprised of historical and observed growth stage data, a covariate matrix describing correlations between different growth stages, and an error matrix used to represent variations in the multivariate distribution. The server computer system estimates mean duration values and variance values for the different growth stages for the particular hybrid seed and then calculates estimated crop growth threshold values for the particular hybrid seed. The server computer system then sends the estimated crop growth threshold values to one or more external computer systems for the purposes of updating and programming crop management instructions.
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