Generating probabilistic estimates of rainfall rates from radar reflectivity measurements

摘要

A method and system for generating probabilistic estimates of precipitation intensity from radar reflectivity measurements is provided. In an embodiment, an agricultural intelligence computer system receives radar reflectivity measurements for a particular location from an external data source. The agricultural intelligence computer system constructs a probability distribution of drop sizes describing the probability that the precipitation included drops of various sizes based on the radar reflectivity measurements. The agricultural intelligence computer system samples a plurality of values from the probability of distribution of drop sizes and uses the plurality of values and the radar reflectivity measurements to compute a plurality of rainfall rates. Based on the plurality of rainfall rates, the agricultural intelligence computer system constructs a probability distribution of rainfall rates for the particular location.