RELIABILITY EVALUATION METHOD FOR HOIST MAIN SHAFT OF KILOMETER-DEEP MINE CONSIDERING MULTIPLE FAILURE MODES

摘要

The present invention discloses a reliability evaluation method for a hoistmainshaft of a kilometer-deep mine considering multiple failure modes. First, aparametrical three-dimensional model of the main shaft is establishedaccording tophysical dimensions of the main shaft. Then, a sampling matrix for randomvariablesof the main shaft is established according to probability types of the randomvariables,and strength and stiffness responses of the main shaft are solved using thesamplingmatrix with a finite element method. Afterwards, an explicit function definingarelationship between the responses and the matrix for the random variables isestablished using a neural network approach, and explicit performancefunctions in astrength failure mode and in a stiffness failure mode are separatelyestablishedaccording to strength and stiffness design criteria; and then, probabilitiesof these twofailures are calculated by means of a saddlepoint approximation method.Finally, ajoint failure probability model combining the two failure modes is establishedusing aClayton copula function, and system reliability in the case of a joint failureis solvedusing a bound reliability method. The present invention considers probabilitycorrelation between a strength failure and a stiffness failure, and can moreaccuratelyand reasonably evaluate system reliability of the hoist main shaft.