DISTRIBUTION NETWORK STATION AREA POWER SHORTAGE PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON VOLTAGE QUALITY

摘要

A distribution network station area power shortage prediction method based on voltage quality comprises: obtaining, within a set statistical period, a feature indicator, and an industry classification and electricity consumption of each user, for each station area in a distribution network (S1); calculating, according to the industry classifications of the users, the total electricity consumption of each industry for each station area (S2); using a fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm to perform clustering on all the station areas in the distribution network according to the feature indicator of the station areas, and selecting a station area closest to a central sample as a typical station area (S3); monitoring the voltage of the typical station area, and calculating the probability that each voltage level meets a standard (S4); using the probability of the voltage being insufficient at the typical station area to represent the voltage quality of the station area, collecting statistics on the operating conditions of the main power-consuming devices of users in various industries at each level of insufficient voltage, and configuring a table relating the amplitude of the insufficient voltage to loss of load probability, and according to the probability of each voltage level meeting a standard and the total electricity consumption of each industry in the station areas, calculating a hidden power shortage quantity caused by the insufficient voltages (S6), thereby obtaining a total power shortage quantity in the station areas.