METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR PREDICTING DIFFUSION PATTERN OF VOLCANIC ASH BASED ON RATE OF TIME CHANGE

摘要

According to the present invention, a method for predicting a diffusion pattern of volcanic ash based on a temporal change rate comprises the steps of: collecting first past meteorological field variables at a point of time of volcanic eruption of volcanic edifice and second past meteorological field variables at a point of time after a predetermined time after the volcanic eruption; selecting partial past meteorological field variables as n cluster reference variables through clustering the first past meteorological field variables and the second past meteorological field variables; generating past meteorological field clusters by performing clustering based on the selected n cluster reference variables; generating a past volcanic ash diffusion pattern based on the generated past meteorological field clusters and storing the pattern together with the past meteorological field clusters in a volcanic edifice DB; when a volcanic eruption occurs from the volcanic edifice, collecting first current meteorological field variables at a point of time of the current volcanic eruption and second current meteorological field variables at a point of time after the predetermined time after the volcanic eruption; determining, as current reference variables, partial current meteorological field variables corresponding to partial past meteorological field variables of the first current meteorological field variables and the second current meteorological field variables; selecting, as a reference cluster, a past meteorological field cluster most similar to the current reference variables determined among the past meteorological field clusters stored in the volcanic edifice DB; and predicting, as a current volcanic ash diffusion pattern, the past volcanic ash diffusion pattern corresponding to the selected reference cluster. The present invention can provide a method for predicting a current diffusion pattern of volcanic ash at a point of time of the volcanic eruption at high accuracy in real time by using a diffusion pattern of volcanic ash due to a past meteorological field clusters reflecting temporal change rate occurring from the volcanic edifice.