Success probability calculation device, success probability calculation method, and success probability calculation program

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a success probability calculation device which can accurately calculate success probability of demand response in a contract type demand response.SOLUTION: A success probability calculation device is given in which success probability that a user participating in demand response satisfies success condition in the demand response is calculated. The success probability calculation device comprises: a generated power calculation unit which calculates a generated power of an electric power facility capable of contributing to reduction of received power during execution time of the demand response; an actual value acquisition unit which acquires actual value of the difference between the received power of the user and a baseline power of the received power; a surplus generated power calculation unit which calculates surplus generated power of the electric power facility during the execution time of the demand response on the basis of the generated power calculated by the generated power calculation unit and contracted reduction power corresponding to the success condition; and a success probability calculation unit which calculates success probability base on the actual value acquired by the actual value acquisition unit and the surplus generated power calculated by the surplus generated power calculation unit.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3